Few now doubt that the U.S. government is rushing headlong toward a major fiscal crisis. Promised future outlays, mainly for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, far exceed projected future revenue, and the total federal debt continues to grow beyond previous boundaries, says Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, an associate economics professor at San Jose State University.
- The latest estimate by Laurence J. Kotlikoff puts the gap’s present value at the bone-crushing level of $211 trillion, while a more modest estimate from Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent A. Smetters estimates the gap as of 2010 at $79.4 trillion.
- The Congressional Budget Office’s most recent long-term outlook has federal expenditures (without interest payments) accounting for 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), while revenues account for only 20 percent.
- Marc Joffe, a former employee of Moody’s Analytics, projects that by 2040 the national debt will have already reached more than 180 percent of GDP.